International Comparison of the hottest electrific

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The report of the 19th CPC National Congress clearly pointed out that we should promote the revolution of energy production and consumption and build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system. As the most important use of clean energy, electric energy will become a key link to promote the energy revolution. By focusing on the analysis of the development process of electrification in major countries in the world and summarizing the relevant historical laws, we hope to use "stones from other mountains" to enlighten the development of energy and power in China

comparison of electrification development indicators of major countries in the world

electrification degree, that is, the dependence of social and economic development on electricity, is usually measured by two indicators: first, the percentage of power generation energy in the total primary energy consumption (the proportion of power generation energy), which reflects the position of electricity in the energy system; The second is the percentage of electricity in the total terminal energy consumption (the proportion of terminal electricity), which is used to measure the power consumption level of various users and reflect the role of electricity in social and economic development

the proportion of global power generation has increased rapidly in the early stage and recently entered a stage of steady development, with developed countries generally higher than developing countries. After experiencing a rapid increase in the proportion of power generation in developed countries, it generally entered a stable stage in the 1980s and 1990s; In recent years, due to the shale gas revolution, economic crisis, nuclear abandonment policy and other impacts, the proportion of power generation in some developed countries has fluctuated slightly. The proportion of power generation in developing countries has been in the stage of improvement, especially in the BRICs countries, including China. The economy and society continue to develop rapidly, and the electrification level of energy production side has rapidly climbed to the level of OECD countries

the proportion of global terminal electric energy has maintained a "steady increase" trend for a long time, the growth of developed countries has slowed down, and emerging market countries have increased rapidly. The slowdown in the improvement of the overall electrification level in developed countries is mainly affected by factors such as the continuous adjustment of industrial structure and the enhancement of the competitiveness of alternative energy. The proportion of terminal electric energy in developed countries in the late stage of industrialization generally fluctuates between 20% and 25%. Driven by the process of industrialization, developing countries have rapidly increased the proportion of terminal electric energy, which has become the main driving force for the steady improvement of the global end-user electrification level. Among the BRICs countries, the proportion of terminal electric energy in China is only lower than that in South Africa

analysis of main influencing factors of electrification development

consider the main factors affecting the proportion of power generation energy from the perspective of different power supply varieties: the extensive utilization of coal, hydropower and nuclear energy promotes the rapid improvement of electrification level, and the rise of unconventional oil and gas slows down its improvement speed, but the above energy development is limited by resources, environment, ecology, safety and other factors to a certain extent

coal faces great pressure on carbon emission reduction. For countries rich in coal resources, such as China and India, before the 21st century, the electrification of coal was the main driving force to increase the proportion of power generation, but its high-carbon characteristics could not be changed in a short time, and the energy transformation could not be supported by the clean utilization of coal alone. In the future, limited by major energy development challenges such as climate change and environmental pollution, countries have formulated relevant coal control policies

unconventional oil and gas production links have environmental and ecological impacts. With the continuous advancement of the shale revolution, the production of unconventional oil and gas such as shale oil, shale gas and combustible ice has increased significantly in the past 10 years. Taking the United States as a representative, the shale gas production increased 10 times from 2006 to 2016, which promoted the non electric utilization of fossil energy, and the proportion of power generation energy continued to decline. However, many environmental problems such as water resource occupation, water pollution and geological disasters caused by shale oil and gas exploitation still have no good solutions; Combustible ice mining also faces problems such as ecological environment damage and greenhouse gas emissions

hydropower is restricted by resource potential and ecological protection. As a kind of clean energy, hydropower can be used to improve the electrification level of a certain proportion in countries with abundant hydropower station sites, such as Brazil. After that, the further development of hydropower will be limited by many factors, such as resource constraints, rising development costs (especially immigration costs), ecological and environmental protection, and will not fully support the realization of the goal of energy transformation in the future. According to statistics, due to factors such as immigration, the rapid rise of environmental protection costs and being far away from power load areas, the electricity price of newly-built hydropower stations has already exceeded that of ordinary thermal power stations

nuclear power has the attribute of "double-edged sword". For countries with poor fossil energy resources, the extensive use of nuclear power is an important way to improve energy self-sufficiency and electrification, such as France, which is poor in fossil energy resources. But at the same time, nuclear power has potential safety risks. After the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, the "nuclear abandonment" policy led to a sharp decline in the proportion of power generation in Japan

new energy development faces opportunities and challenges. As a renewable non fossil energy, new energy can better cope with climate change and environmental pollution and solve the problem of resource shortage. With the gradual maturity of technology and the gradual decline of cost, the global new energy has developed rapidly in the past decade. In 2016, the global installed capacity of wind and solar power was nearly 800 GW. Looking ahead, it is expected that the cost of new energy power generation technology will continue to decline significantly, supporting large-scale development and utilization. However, the power electronic characteristics of new energy power generation and the random fluctuation of output also bring great challenges to the operation of power system

the main factors affecting the proportion of terminal electric energy include economic development, alternative energy, industrial structure, etc. In the late stage of industrialization, the electrification level of developed countries with a high proportion of the tertiary industry is generally high; In addition, the resource endowment and economy of alternative energy directly affect the competitiveness of terminal electric energy

economic development and electrification level affect each other. Electrification level and economic and social development promote and influence each other. On the one hand, economic development requires labor efficiency to continuously prevent dirt from entering the servo valve, which promotes the proportion of power consumption at the terminal; On the other hand, the industrial revolution driven by electricity has achieved a leap from simple mechanical production to mass production, greatly improving labor efficiency, creating huge productivity, and promoting the vigorous development of the global economy

optional energy affects the competitiveness of terminal electric energy. Resource endowment determines the types of alternative energy for end consumption, and the economy of these alternative energy sources affects the competitiveness of electric energy. For example, Britain and Russia are rich in natural gas resources, and heating in winter is mainly gas. The electrification level of residents in the two countries has been maintained at a low level of 20% - 30% and 10% for a long time, which is far lower than the 40% - 50% level of general understanding of industry status in other developed countries

industrial structure has a great impact on the level of electrification. There are obvious differences in electricity demand in different economic sectors, and the industrial structure has a great impact on the level of electrification. From the perspective of typical countries, the impact of the transfer of manufacturing industry in the United States on the level of electrification in the context of globalization has been hedged by the vigorous development of the service industry in the information age. In recent years, the overall level of electrification in the United States has remained stable. From the perspective of typical cities, Hong Kong is dominated by finance and trade, with the highest level of electrification (41.8%, 2014); The electrification level of international cities such as Tokyo, Paris and London is in the range of 30% - 35%; Other cities still have a large share of industry or shipping, and the electrification level is about 20%

enlightenment to China

China's economic development stage, economic structure, energy consumption level and resource endowment are quite different from other countries. Considering that there is still a lot of room for development and progress in China's economy and society in the future, electrification will continue to be a strong driving force to escort and start a new round of growth

there is a certain positive correlation between the social progress index of major countries in the world and the proportion of terminal electric energy. Considering the wide range of indicators selected by the social progress index, it can be considered that countries with a relatively high degree of social progress also have a relatively high degree of electrification. The electrification level and social progress index of western developed countries have developed to a high level, and there is still a lot of room for China's electrification level to rise. Unlike some countries that are rich in oil and gas resources and developed countries that have a scientific and reasonable economic structure, China's electrification process needs to be "powered" on both the energy production side and the consumption side

on the side of energy production, considering the characteristics of "poor oil and less gas" of China's energy resources, it is necessary to continuously increase the proportion of non fossil energy consumption and promote the clean and low-carbon development of energy production. In addition, China's rich coal resources determine the need for clean and efficient use of coal. Considering the high efficiency of coal power generation and the easy centralized treatment of pollutant emissions, it is necessary to continuously increase the proportion of power coal

on the end consumption side, the first is to promote the replacement of electric energy in transportation. Electrified transportation can alleviate the external dependence of oil and gas and reduce fuel exhaust emissions. The accuracy of experimental force: better than ± 1% of the indicated value; Secondly, as the core driver of the electrification level in the process of economic restructuring, the service industry also needs to be improved and improved; Finally, accessibility and economy are important factors for the improvement of residents' electrification level, and it is necessary to actively promote the utilization of residents' consumption of electric energy

in addition, considering China's energy resources, environmental and ecological constraints, energy consumption structure, modernization process and other factors, China's electrification level has a huge space to improve; In the context of global clean energy and low-carbon transformation, emerging developing countries such as China will become the main force to promote the development of electrification

on the side of energy production, the resources of China's traditional energy varieties are constrained by their own conditions. Fossil energy does not meet the requirements of low-carbon and clean energy transformation. Hydropower generation faces resource constraints, ecological protection and other restrictions. Nuclear power is still constrained by safety risks without technological breakthroughs. In the future, considering the huge potential of China's new energy power generation ("the exploitable capacity of 80 meter high land wind power technology in the" Three North "region is about 3.2 billion kw, and the installed development potential of photovoltaic power stations in western Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Tibet, Gansu, Qinghai and Ningxia is about 1.9 billion kw), the development focus of China's energy production side electrification is to vigorously develop new energy based on scenery

on the end consumption side, China's electrification level has great growth potential, and the space for improvement is concentrated in the areas of residents' life, transportation, commercial services and so on. Judging from the energy consumption and electric energy substitution of China's key energy consumption departments, the heating and driving links of industrial production have the characteristics of large total amount, small capacity and coal. Replacing coal with electricity can replace the small boilers accounting for about 50%; The transportation energy is mainly oil, and there is a huge space for the development of electric vehicles, electrified railways and rail transit; The direct consumption of fossil energy accounts for a high proportion of household consumption, with a total of nearly 601 input data being permanently reused%, and China's urbanization rate has room to rise by 20%

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